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CruisinLinda Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:7,947 Points:1,621,420 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 4:21:51 PM Ignore CruisinLinda Report Abuse A leading international group of climate scientists reported last month that the evidence for global warming is "unequivocal" and that the likelihood it is caused by humans emitting greenhouse gases is more than 90 percent. Those gases include carbon dioxide, methane and carbon dioxide. The average American emits 10-20 tons of carbon per year. That is one ton per 100 gallons of gas (5 tons for a 30 mpg vehicle travelling 15,000 miles a year) and .75 tons for each 1,000 kilowatt hours of electricity, about 10 tons per year per house. The question now is what to do. This is a political problem more than a scientific one, as noted by David Ignatius of the Washington Post. The solutions will bring pain, and we will have to decide how to share the pain. A startling new report by futurist Peter Schwartz for a U.S. intelligence agency he won't identify focuses on the real cost. Rather than starting with detailed estimates of climate change (how much temperatures will increase; how much sea levels will rise; what new diseases will be spawned), he looks instead at systems that already are vulnerable to such stresses. Schwartz shows that the world already is precarious, and the networks that maintain political and social order already are fragile, especially in urban areas. The dividing line between civilized life and anarchy is frighteningly easy to disappear, as we see daily in Iraq and in New Orleans. "In short, climate change pushes systems everywhere toward their tipping point," Schwartz stated in the report, "Impacts of Climate Change," prepared by his consulting group, Global Business Network. The text of the report is available at the online discussion forum PostGlobal http://www.washingtonpost.com/postglobal. Here's a brief trek through the ravaged landscape Schwartz describes: A first set of disasters waiting to happen involves stressed ecosystems. Human actions -- deforestation, overfarming, rapid urbanization -- have created special vulnerabilities to catastrophic natural events that are likely as the climate changes globally. Schwartz cites the example of Haiti, which because of deforestation and loss of topsoil is "an ecosystem at the edge." A prolonged drought or a devastating hurricane could tip Haiti over that threshold -- and produce a refugee crisis of tens of thousands of boat people fleeing a devastated country. On the prospect of rising sea levels: Climate scientists are uncertain how fast the icecaps will melt and the seas will rise. in Bangladesh, where millions of people live at or near sea level, even a small increase could produce a catastrophe. In a severe monsoon, 60 million to 100 million people could be forced to flee inundated areas, Schwartz warns, producing "the single greatest humanitarian crisis we have ever seen." Lack of water may be as big a problem as flooding. Schwartz notes that more than 700 million people now live in arid or semi-arid areas. Climate change could tip this balance, too, producing severe water shortages and even "water wars." Tens of millions of people may become water migrants. The world's feeble political systems can't cope with existing migration patterns, let alone this human tide. There is the problem of maintaining social order in a stressed, rapidly urbanizing world. Schwartz notes that in 1900, one in 20 people lived in cities. Today it is about 10 in 20, and increasing. Without strong and flexible governments, the world could devolve to one of vigilantes and militias, desperate to control scarce resources. [Edited by: CruisinLinda at 3/2/2007 4:29:36 PM EST]

CruisinLinda

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Tallahassee

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Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 4:21:51 PM

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A leading international group of climate scientists reported last month that the evidence for global warming is "unequivocal" and that the likelihood it is caused by humans emitting greenhouse gases is more than 90 percent. Those gases include carbon dioxide, methane and carbon dioxide. The average American emits 10-20 tons of carbon per year. That is one ton per 100 gallons of gas (5 tons for a 30 mpg vehicle travelling 15,000 miles a year) and .75 tons for each 1,000 kilowatt hours of electricity, about 10 tons per year per house.

The question now is what to do. This is a political problem more than a scientific one, as noted by David Ignatius of the Washington Post. The solutions will bring pain, and we will have to decide how to share the pain.

A startling new report by futurist Peter Schwartz for a U.S. intelligence agency he won't identify focuses on the real cost. Rather than starting with detailed estimates of climate change (how much temperatures will increase; how much sea levels will rise; what new diseases will be spawned), he looks instead at systems that already are vulnerable to such stresses.

Schwartz shows that the world already is precarious, and the networks that maintain political and social order already are fragile, especially in urban areas. The dividing line between civilized life and anarchy is frighteningly easy to disappear, as we see daily in Iraq and in New Orleans. "In short, climate change pushes systems everywhere toward their tipping point," Schwartz stated in the report, "Impacts of Climate Change," prepared by his consulting group, Global Business Network. The text of the report is available at the online discussion forum PostGlobal http://www.washingtonpost.com/postglobal.

Here's a brief trek through the ravaged landscape Schwartz describes:

A first set of disasters waiting to happen involves stressed ecosystems. Human actions -- deforestation, overfarming, rapid urbanization -- have created special vulnerabilities to catastrophic natural events that are likely as the climate changes globally. Schwartz cites the example of Haiti, which because of deforestation and loss of topsoil is "an ecosystem at the edge." A prolonged drought or a devastating hurricane could tip Haiti over that threshold -- and produce a refugee crisis of tens of thousands of boat people fleeing a devastated country.

On the prospect of rising sea levels: Climate scientists are uncertain how fast the icecaps will melt and the seas will rise. in Bangladesh, where millions of people live at or near sea level, even a small increase could produce a catastrophe. In a severe monsoon, 60 million to 100 million people could be forced to flee inundated areas, Schwartz warns, producing "the single greatest humanitarian crisis we have ever seen."

Lack of water may be as big a problem as flooding. Schwartz notes that more than 700 million people now live in arid or semi-arid areas. Climate change could tip this balance, too, producing severe water shortages and even "water wars." Tens of millions of people may become water migrants. The world's feeble political systems can't cope with existing migration patterns, let alone this human tide.

There is the problem of maintaining social order in a stressed, rapidly urbanizing world. Schwartz notes that in 1900, one in 20 people lived in cities. Today it is about 10 in 20, and increasing. Without strong and flexible governments, the world could devolve to one of vigilantes and militias, desperate to control scarce resources.

[Edited by: CruisinLinda at 3/2/2007 4:29:36 PM EST]

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gougedQC Champion Author Montreal Posts:5,130 Points:69,885 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Feb 7, 2010 11:15:39 AM Ignore gougedQC Report Abuse STEVE2000- warmer air - as a result of increased Co2- enables more vapour to be held. this is known as a feedback loop. Warmer air, with increased humidity, also means more frequent and more violent storms than "normal" . Something we have been seeing
malcm Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:2,988 Points:1,276,080 Joined:Dec 2003	Message Posted: Sep 27, 2008 2:14:52 AM Ignore malcm Report Abuse bump
mitch2008 Rookie Author Wisconsin Posts:8 Points:260 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Jul 28, 2008 10:50:58 AM Ignore mitch2008 Report Abuse The problem, i think, is that everyone is just assuming everyone else will alter their lifestyles and live "green". This won't be enough. Everyone needs to do their part even if it is the slightest alteration in their life. Getting light efficient bulbs throughout the house is not the biggest hassle people. Start small, then expand to greater areas of your life, ie the car you dive. That's the greatest advice i can give. http://consumer.planetontario.ca/
SteveS2000 Sophomore Author Cincinnati Posts:236 Points:215,520 Joined:Oct 2006	Message Posted: Jun 26, 2007 6:39:15 AM Ignore SteveS2000 Report Abuse let's be truthful linda instead of promoting your agenda. Your 90% figure might be right, but over 48% of the world's scientists disagree that man is causing this 1 degree warming. And Linda all we hear about is CO2, but what about the water vapor--it is the #1 greenhouse gas. Linda, why is it we never hear anything about it? We know why. 1) Can't do a darn thing about it. 2)no one can make big money getting government funding to study it. DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
BlueBike Champion Author San Jose Posts:2,521 Points:635,135 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: Jun 11, 2007 10:59:05 AM Ignore BlueBike Report Abuse Global warming is real. But how many are willing to give up their life style to fix the problem. Not enough at this time. As the situation gets worse, it will become more obvious.
gougenator Champion Author Dallas Posts:29,837 Points:3,242,000 Joined:Aug 2003	Message Posted: Mar 3, 2007 1:23:29 AM Ignore gougenator Report Abuse i did a little text search on this thread and "gas" was mentioned 4 times and it wasnt GASOLINE they were talking about ,,and besides all global warming debates should belong in SCIENCE forums thx, G.
Rt1ACommuter Champion Author Maine Posts:2,290 Points:550,710 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Mar 3, 2007 1:14:08 AM Ignore Rt1ACommuter Report Abuse she begins "A leading international group of climate scientists..." what an oxymoron! Another gorite drinking the kool-aid.
Buddy2264 Champion Author Tampa Posts:11,639 Points:2,357,045 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: Mar 3, 2007 1:11:34 AM Ignore Buddy2264 Report Abuse It is a long post but she brings up several good points. Only time will tell who is right on global warming and who was wrong. If you think the oil crisis is big wait until the water crisis. Large portion of Texas underground water rights have already been bought up. There was a news story several months ago about that. Look what happened to the Colorado river. The post about moving to solar is a good idea. We need alternative way to generate what we need without ruining the environment for future generation instead of always thinking about self.
cardpedler Champion Author Oakland Posts:11,331 Points:2,321,635 Joined:Jun 2006	Message Posted: Mar 3, 2007 12:34:07 AM Ignore cardpedler Report Abuse So who do we shoot first?
cptdenny Champion Author Florida Posts:2,350 Points:1,333,000 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Mar 3, 2007 12:32:53 AM Ignore cptdenny Report Abuse Well lets say you're right, Linda. So many of millions of Earth polluters may die from rising oceans, and this is a bad thing? You can't have it right both ways, little darlin...
FiremanJoe Champion Author Spokane Posts:2,456 Points:805,620 Joined:Apr 2006	Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 8:50:37 PM Ignore FiremanJoe Report Abuse Whatever!!!!
Eagle32860 Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:5,260 Points:1,132,035 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 8:41:47 PM Ignore Eagle32860 Report Abuse My weather is getting better with global warming
tomcat2door Champion Author Ventura Posts:4,082 Points:2,317,815 Joined:Mar 2006	Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 8:13:57 PM Ignore tomcat2door Report Abuse We are doomed.
USMC6569 All-Star Author Texas Posts:673 Points:145,270 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 7:13:31 PM Ignore USMC6569 Report Abuse Isn't it amazing that they were predicting global cooling 30 yrs ago, and now are ranting about global warming. Big change in short time.
oilpan4 Champion Author Virginia Posts:12,034 Points:306,460 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Mar 2, 2007 4:50:27 PM Ignore oilpan4 Report Abuse Thats nice. For me I'm trying to build a solar water preheater, should at least cut in half the amount of natural gas I need to heat my hot water. And preparing to be one of those vigilantes or in one of those militias, desperate to control scarce resources.